The Chinese economy appears destined for failure, the financial bubble forever in peril of popping, the real estate sector doomed to collapse, the factories fated for bankruptcy. Banks drowning in bad loans. A trade war with the United States. An urban landscape littered with ghost towns of empty property. Industrial zones stalked by zombie firms. And yet, against the odds and against expectations, growth continues, wealth rises, global influence expands. The coming collapse of China is always coming, never arriving. Tom Orlik, a veteran of more than a decade in Beijing, turns the spotlight on China's fragile fundamentals, and resources for resilience. Drawing on discussions with Communist cadres, shadow bankers, and migrant workers, Orlik pieces together a unique perspective on China's past, present, and possible futures. From Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening to Xi Jinping's anti-corruption crackdown, Orlik traces the policy steps and missteps that have taken China to the brink of a "Lehman moment" credit crisis. Delving into the minutiae of balance sheets for banks, corporates, and local governments, he plumbs the depths of financial risks. From Japan in 1989, to Korea in 1997, to the U.S. in 2007, he positions China in the context of a rolling series of global crisis. Mapping out possible scenarios, Orlik games out what will happens if the bubble that never pops finally does. The magnitude of the shock to China and the world would be tremendous. For those in the West nervously watching China's rise, the alternative could be even less palatable.


Thomas Orlik spent eleven years in China as Chief Asia Economist for Bloomberg and as a journalist for the Wall Street Journal. He is currently the Chief Economist for Bloomberg, based in Washington DC. He is the author of Understanding China’s Economic Indicators.